隨著兩岸關係變得緊張及中國國家主席習近平的權力不斷擴張,加上香港反送中等議題,使得台灣人對於「中國」這一個「符號」所形塑的言說,越發感知到中國對台灣所帶來的「風險」。而在台灣的近年來的選舉中「中國」言 說成為必然會出現的一種「符號」,因此本研究針對台灣 2020 與 2022 近兩次的選舉輿情中,「中國」言說扮演的角色以及對選舉的影響,提出三個問題意識,分別是:「輿情中的『中國』言說如何呈現?」、「輿情中的『中國』言 說與選舉之間的關聯為何?」、「輿情中的『中國』言說影響選舉的關鍵因素 為何?」。 對此,本研究發現,在兩次選舉中,「中國」言說可以分為與中共政府相關、親共的「中國」國民黨和不親共的「中國」國民黨三個部分。而「中國」 言說的輿情導向對不同政黨的選情影響顯著,若負面情緒較多對民進黨有利, 反之則對國民黨有利。此外,本研究亦發現 PTT 的「政治黑特版」及「八卦版」對於「中國」具有議題的高度集中性,就輿論製造的平台而言,PTT 擁有較佳的傳播效率。因此,本文透過輿情分析的方式以「中國」言說之相關關鍵字進行設定,試圖找出「中國」言說在兩次台灣選舉中所代表的意義與角色, 希冀能夠提供台灣選舉輿情研究的一種分析途徑及視角。
As cross-strait relations have become tense and Chinese President Xi Jinping's power continues to expand, along with issues such as the Hong Kong anti-extradition bill protests, Taiwanese people have become increasingly aware of the "risks" that the symbol of "China" represents in shaping discourse. In recent years, the "China" discourse has become an inevitable "symbol" in Taiwanese elections. Therefore, this study raises three questions regarding the role and influence of the "China" discourse in the election sentiment of Taiwan's 2020 and 2022 elections: "How does the 'China' discourse present itself in public sentiment?", "What is the relationship between the 'China' discourse and the elections in public sentiment?", and "What are the key factors influencing the impact of the 'China' discourse on the elections in public sentiment?" The study found that in the two elections, the "China" discourse could be divided into three parts: "China" related to the Chinese Communist Party, "China" leaning towards the Kuomintang, and "China" not leaning towards the Kuomintang. The sentiment orientation of the "China" discourse had a significant impact on the electoral prospects of different political parties, with a negative sentiment advantage for the Democratic Progressive Party and the opposite for the Kuomintang. In addition, the study found that PTT's Political Gossip Board and Gossip Board have a high degree of focus on the issue of "China", and in terms of opinion-making platforms, PTT has better communication efficiency. Therefore, this paper attempts to find the meaning and role of the "China" discourse in the two Taiwan elections through sentiment analysis based on related keywords of the "China" discourse, hoping to provide an analytical approach and perspective for research on Taiwan's election sentiment.