本研究以風險社會理論、解釋水平理論、兩級傳播與風險傳播模型為基礎,2022 年中共解放軍聯合軍演事件為背景,以問卷調查法(n=298)施測受 兵役延長影響之群體,探討透過媒體報導兩岸軍事新聞事件對戰爭風險感知、 風險接受度、政策支持度與行為傾向的影響。研究發現越注意網路媒體報導中共解放軍聯合軍演新聞,戰爭風險感知越高;從學校教官了解越多中共解放軍聯合軍演資訊,戰爭風險感知也越高;從網路社群平台了解越多中共解放軍聯合軍演資訊,戰爭風險感知也越高。心理距離對於媒體依賴程度與戰爭風險感知的關係無顯著調節影響,然心理距離越近,戰爭風險感知也越高。戰爭風險感知越高,風險接受度、國防政策支持度、行為傾向也越高。最後依據分析結果給予建議,未來學校教官能持續教導兩岸軍事現況與我國面對中共解放軍軍 事壓力的政策應對措施,以提升年輕學子國防政策支持與行為傾向,並進一步探討這群主要受兵役延長影響役男不願意支持兵役延長的原因,若能深入了解原因加以解釋分析,將會使國防政策推行更受支持與更具影響力。
This study is based on risk society, Construal Level Theory, Two-step flow of communication and risk communication model, with the background of the joint military exercise of the Chinese People's Liberation Army in 2022, using questionnaire survey (n=298) to measure the groups affected by the extension of military service. To explore the influence of media coverage of cross-strait military news events on war risk perception, risk acceptance, policy support, and behavioral tendencies. The study found that the more attention paid to online media reports on the news of the PLA joint military exercise, the higher the perception of war risk; the more information about the PLA joint military exercise from school instructors, the higher the perception of war risk; the more information learned from online community platforms on the joint military exercises of the Chinese Communist Party and the People's Liberation Army also increases the perception of war risk. Psychic distance has no significant moderating effect on the relationship between media dependence and war risk perception, but the closer the Psychic distance is, the higher the war risk perception is. The higher the war risk perception, the higher the risk acceptance, defense policy support, and behavior tendency. Finally, suggestions are given based on the analysis results. In the future, school instructors can continue to teach the current military situation across the Taiwan Strait and our country’s policy responses to the military pressure of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army, so as to improve young students’ national defense policy support and behavioral tendencies, and further explore the impact of this group mainly affected by the extension of military service. The reasons why the mandatory military service for males are unwilling to support the extension of military service, if we can understand the reasons in depth and explain and analyze them, will make the promotion of national defense policy more supportive and more influential.