互聯網在中國大陸的擴散
The Diffusion of the Internet in Mainland China

金兼斌
Jin, Jianbin

本研究從創新擴散的觀點對互聯網在大陸的擴散過程進行了系統層面的分析。借用正交與均勻實驗設計中用來描述S形生長曲線的Weibell模型，本研究在既有統計資料的基礎上，求出了大陸及其代表性的九個省、直轄市的互聯網擴散回歸方程，對大陸及其多個地區的互聯網擴散模式作了理論上的概括和描述。在此基礎上，還對大陸及其不同地區今後的互聯網擴散情況進行了預測。根據本研究，大陸不同地區在互聯網擴散進程上差別很大，存在明顯的“數字鴻溝”現象；只有少數地區的互聯網擴散已越過臨界數量點進入快速增長階段，絕大部分地區仍處於初步擴散階段；而大陸的總體擴散水準也離臨界數量點距離較遠。本研究預測，大約要到2003年5月左右，大陸地區的互聯網擴散才會在總體上達到臨界數量點，進入快速增長的階段。

This paper examines the diffusion of the Internet in Mainland China from the perspective of innovation diffusion. Employing the Weibell Model as the regression analytical model of the S-shaped diffusion curve, this study attempts to map out the diffusion patterns of the Internet in Mainland China in general as well as in different provinces in specific. According to the study, the diffusion of the Internet in Mainland China is still in its early stage, far before the critical mass point. On the other hand, the diffusion of the Internet across different areas is quite uneven, known as "digital divide". It is expected, based on the prediction of the study, that Mainland China will reach its critical mass point in May 2003 when most of its provinces will eventually reach or pass the critical mass respectively.

創新擴散，臨界數量，數位鴻溝，飽和點，網路擴散程度，S曲線

innovation diffusion，critical mass，digital divide，saturation point，Internet penetration，S-shaped curve

2001.07.05

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互聯網在中國大陸的擴散.pdf